Russia launches 'Phase Zero' in preparation for war with NATO
Reports have indicated that Russia has entered what experts call the "zero phase" of preparations for a potential war with NATO. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed that Moscow has begun implementing coordinated efforts that include intelligence operations, military provocations, and restructuring of its forces in preparation for a possible conflict in the future. Although there are no signs of Russia intending to launch a war soon, there are clear indicators of long-term planning.
According to the institute's report, the Russian foreign intelligence agency known as SVR has recently intensified its warnings about alleged "Western conspiracies" against Moscow. On Monday, the agency accused Britain and a group of Russians loyal to Ukraine of planning an attack on a Ukrainian or civilian ship in one of the European ports, using Chinese equipment to accuse Beijing of supporting Russia. The agency also launched similar allegations concerning Poland, Moldova, and Serbia. Analysts believe that these claims are not genuine intelligence reports, but rather part of a psychological campaign aimed at influencing Russian and Western public opinion, paving the way to justify any future Russian aggression and garner internal support for it.
At the same time, Russia has escalated its provocations against NATO countries. Researchers at the institute noted that Moscow has engaged in sabotage operations, cyber warfare, jamming GPS systems, and even arson targeting facilities in NATO countries. In recent weeks, Russian drones and fighter jets have breached NATO airspace, increasing tensions in Europe. Experts believe that these moves aim to instill fear and instability, pushing Western countries to reduce their support for Ukraine for fear of being drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia.
In parallel with these movements, Russia is restructuring its army in a way that indicates its readiness for a large-scale conflict. Reports indicate that the Kremlin is reorganizing military districts along its western borders, building new bases near Finland, and forming a strategic reserve that could include hundreds of thousands of soldiers. A source close to the Kremlin revealed that President Vladimir Putin plans to adopt a long-term strategy instead of seeking a quick victory in Ukraine, which analysts see as evidence of Moscow's intention to continue confrontation with the West and possibly expand it in the future.
Despite these concerning developments, ISW experts confirm that there are currently no indicators of Russia's readiness to engage in an imminent war with NATO. They consider the "zero phase" to be primarily a psychological and political stage aimed at preparing public opinion, undermining Western unity, and creating favorable conditions for potential escalation in the future. However, the rise of disinformation campaigns, military provocations, and the restructuring of the Russian army reveal the seriousness of Moscow's long-term ambitions and the fragility of the security landscape in Europe today.