FPÖ leads the polls amid party chaos
On July 9th and 10th, the National Council in Austria will hold its last sessions before the summer break, after which most politicians will begin their annual vacation. In this context, parties have started to receive evaluations of their political performance, and the newspaper "oe24" relied on the "APA-Wahltrend" index, which is a summary of all opinion polls conducted in Austria. Werner Beutelmeyer, director of the "Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft" institute, presented his analysis of these results, which were not encouraging for the current government.
According to the index, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) led by Herbert Kickl is at the top of the polls with 32.7%, ahead by more than 10 percentage points from its closest competitor. Beutlmeier believes that the reason for this advance is international crises, and people's fears of rising energy prices and the return of inflation, which has created an atmosphere of pessimism and a lack of trust in economic growth, which he considers to be "the ideal environment for the growth of the FPÖ." Based on his own polls, Beutlmeier believes that the party's support could reach up to 35%.
The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP), led by Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, received approximately 22%. Although the party has regained some stability, Buitlmer believes that excessive calm does not serve it at this stage, which requires clear decisions and decisive guidance, adding that this percentage is unacceptable for a party leading the government.
The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) is experiencing a severe crisis, with its popularity dropping to only 20%, and even to 18% in some estimates. Beutlmeier has sharply criticized the party's leader Andreas Babler, describing him as looking "like a small-town mayor unable to take responsibility," emphasizing that the party is suffering from a loss of public trust, despite the presence of figures like Finance Minister Markus Marterbauer, who is highly regarded.
The NEOS party, despite achieving 10.6% and surpassing its previous election result, is facing what Buitlmer described as a "government trap." The party leader and foreign minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, is not focusing enough on reforms, while State Secretary Seb Schilhorn has made serious mistakes from the beginning, particularly regarding the service car issue. As for the Greens (Die Grünen), they received 9.9% of the voting intentions, which is a percentage higher than what they achieved in the September 2024 elections. Buitlmer believes there are signs of recovery for the party, especially with its new leadership under Leonore Gewessler. However, he warned that the mistakes made during their time in government may haunt them, such as supporting the replacement of heating systems by up to 90%, which has caused public discontent.