The Alternative Party surpasses the Union, and Meretz faces the lowest popularity in its history.
The latest opinion polls in Germany reveal a significant change in the political landscape, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) surpassing the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), while Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces his lowest popularity ever. According to the latest RTL/ntv trend indicator, the AfD received 26%, ahead of the CDU/CSU, which dropped to 24%, marking a new decline for the traditional conservative party. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens each received 13%, while the Left Party received 11%. Smaller parties like the Free Democratic Party (3%) and the BSW Party (4%) remain below the threshold required to enter the German parliament (Bundestag).
Public dissatisfaction with Meretz is increasing, as two-thirds of survey participants said they are dissatisfied with his leadership, an increase of 15% compared to May. Even among supporters of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, one in four expressed dissatisfaction, while 60% of supporters of the Social Democratic Party expressed their discontent with his performance. This sharp decline in popularity comes less than 100 days after he took office, raising concerns about the stability of the ruling coalition.
Tensions have risen between the Christian Democratic Union/Social Christian Union and their partners in the Social Democratic Party, especially after Merz announced a partial ban on arms exports to Israel during the parliamentary summer break. Members of the Social Democratic Party criticized the timing of the decision and the way it was announced. Reports indicate a growing distrust between members of the Social Democratic Party and some figures from the Christian Democratic Union/Social Christian Union, including parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn. The leader of the Social Democratic Party, Barbel Bas, also urged Merz to improve his communication style to avoid further political crises.
Despite internal criticisms, Meretz found support from some members of his party. Foreign Minister Johan Fadibol defended the decision to restrict exports, describing it as a necessary political signal following Israel's decision to expand its military operations in Gaza. Young people also supported the move, emphasizing that Germany's commitment to Israel's security remains steadfast, but warned of the worsening suffering of civilians in Gaza. Both confirmed that the suspension only includes specific types of military equipment and does not affect the essence of German-Israeli relations.
Mirts reiterated in a television interview that Germany will continue to support Israel's defenses, but it cannot supply weapons that could be used in a conflict threatening to cause massive civilian casualties. Leaders of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union confirmed that they will remain close allies of Israel, hoping to resume deliveries once conditions improve and seeking to give a new boost to the peace process in the Middle East.