Is Germany Ready for Another Refugee Wave from Iran—or Already Overwhelmed?
Nearly three-quarters of people in Germany believe the country would struggle to handle a new wave of refugees from Iran if the conflict escalates, according to a recent survey.
A Forsa poll found that 73% of respondents doubt Germany’s ability to cope with additional Iranian refugees. This concern is particularly strong among supporters of the CDU/CSU and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), but it is also shared by many voters from center-left parties.
Only supporters of the Green party expressed relative confidence, with most believing that Germany could manage potential new arrivals without major difficulties. The findings highlight deep divisions within German society over migration policy.
The debate comes as tensions, repression, and instability in Iran continue to grow, raising fears of a possible increase in migration. However, international organizations report that there are currently no clear signs of a large-scale exodus from the country.
Germany already hosts the largest Iranian diaspora in Europe, with around 319,000 people of Iranian origin, including approximately 128,000 German citizens. This existing community plays a significant role in shaping the discussion around potential future migration.
In recent years, Germany has faced several major refugee inflows that have influenced both policy and public opinion. The largest wave occurred in 2015–2016, when over one million asylum seekers, mainly from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, arrived, followed by an influx of Ukrainians after 2022.
These past experiences continue to shape public perception, with many Germans questioning whether the country is prepared for another potential migration challenge.