Germany is on the brink of a potential political change with the rise of the Union and the increasing popularity of the far-right.
Early parliamentary elections in Germany began this morning following the collapse of the "Traffic Light" coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP), amid expectations of significant political change. Polls indicate that the Christian Democratic/Social Union (CDU/CSU) alliance, led by Friedrich Merz, is ahead with a range of 28% to 32%, boosting its chances of regaining the chancellorship that it lost to the Social Democratic Party in 2021.
In a notable development, the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) comes in second place with 20% to 21%, ahead of the Social Democratic Party (14%-16%) and the Green Party (12%-14%). The Left Party is expected to receive 8%, while both the Free Democratic Party (4%-5%) and the Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (3%-5%) struggle to surpass the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.
Complex challenges in forming the government Estimates predict difficulty in forming the new government due to the fragmentation of votes among parties. Meretz is seeking to form a dual coalition with the Social Democratic Party or the Greens, but the opposition from the leader of the Christian Social Union, Markus Söder, to an alliance with the Greens could complicate matters. If several small parties enter the parliament, the largest bloc may need a third partner, which could lead to an unstable government, similar to what happened with the previous "Traffic Light" coalition.
A smaller parliamentary council and a focus on immigration and economic issues. Under a new electoral reform, the size of the Bundestag will be reduced to 630 members, which is 100 fewer than the current composition. Immigration issues and a struggling economy dominated the short election campaign, while polls indicate that about 20% of voters have not yet made their choice. With 59 million eligible voters, all possibilities remain open regarding the future of the German political landscape.