The collapse of VVD in the polls: CDA rises while the liberals touch the bottom
The latest opinion poll conducted by EenVandaag has revealed a major shock in the Dutch political landscape, as the VVD party lost eight seats, dropping to only 15 seats, its lowest level in years. The party leader, Dilan Yesilgöz, is facing increasing criticism amid turmoil within the government, leaving the liberals in a difficult position. In contrast, the PVV party leads the scene with 33 seats, followed by GroenLinks-PvdA with 26 seats, while the CDA party solidifies its position in third place with 22 seats. Meanwhile, the NSC party has completely collapsed to zero seats.
The decline of the VVD party reflects a trend that began in late 2023 when the party fell below the threshold of 20 seats following the controversy over asylum policy and doubts about cooperation with the PVV. Although conditions temporarily improved during the Schoof government, that momentum has now disappeared. Analysts point out that the recent dispute between Yeşilgöz and singer Douwe Bob marked a turning point for many angry voters. Her subsequent apology did not succeed in regaining their trust.
Away from personal issues, deep political disagreements are pushing the party towards losing more support. The party's ambiguous stance on the conflict in Gaza and its hesitant position regarding cooperation with Geert Wilders' party have caused internal divisions. Some members accuse VVD of abandoning its principles after entering the Schoof I government with Wilders, while others are angered by the party's decision to exclude any future cooperation.
In contrast, the CDA party maintained its stability with 22 seats, benefiting from the decline of the VVD, which enhances its role as a pivotal force in forming future coalitions. Most CDA voters reject alliances with far-right parties like the PVV and FvD, but they are open to cooperation with GroenLinks-PvdA, ChristenUnie, D66, and VVD, making Christian Democrats a key player in any future government.
Currently, forming a stable government requires broad cooperation across the political spectrum. A coalition that includes GroenLinks-PvdA, CDA, VVD, D66, and ChristenUnie could achieve a slim majority of 78 seats out of 150. A purely right-wing coalition without CDA would not exceed 68 seats, making it insufficient. The coming months will determine whether the divided political landscape can produce a viable coalition.