Historic decline in illegal immigration to Europe
Europe is witnessing a significant decrease in the number of irregular migrants, with the border protection agency FRONTEX recording the lowest figure in three years in 2024: around 239,000 migrants and refugees only. During the first three months of this year, the number of arrivals decreased by 31% compared to the same period last year.
Migration expert Judith Kohlenberger believes that this decline is not surprising, noting that the peak of migration waves after the COVID-19 pandemic has ended, especially for Syrians who left Turkish camps heading to Europe.
The most noticeable decline was on the Balkan route, where a sharp decrease in illegal crossings was recorded. From January to the end of March, only about 2,000 crossings were observed, most of them from Afghanistan, Syria, and Turkey. This decline is also linked to the new measures taken by Balkan countries.
One of the most prominent measures is Serbia's amendment of its visa policy, as it had granted citizens of India and Tunisia visa-free entry, in a move considered a reward for countries that do not recognize Kosovo's independence. However, with increasing pressure from the European Union, especially from Austria, which was affected by the rise in asylum requests from Indians, Belgrade was forced to end this privilege. As a result, asylum requests from India have significantly decreased.
FRONTEX has increased the number of its staff at the borders of the Balkan countries, and the European Union's budget for border protection has been enhanced. At the same time, agreements with North African countries, especially Tunisia, have contributed to reducing human trafficking operations via the "Central Mediterranean Route," with the number of arrivals decreasing by 26% at the beginning of this year, reaching around 8,500 people only.
Despite this decline, Kohlenberger warns of the possibility of a reversal of this trend due to two main factors. The first is the ongoing war in Sudan, which has displaced nearly 13 million people, most of whom have moved to large camps in Chad. So far, there have been no significant waves of refugees from there towards Europe, but the danger remains, especially if some decide to continue the journey through Libya.
The second reason is the United States' cessation of its development aid, after former President Donald Trump canceled the USAID agency, which used to provide over $60 billion annually, of which 42% went to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). This organization manages the large camps in Chad, and without this funding, it will be difficult to maintain basic services.
Remember what happened in 2015, when a funding gap in the World Food Program led to the largest refugee crisis Europe has ever seen. She fears the same scenario will be repeated if urgent steps are not taken.