Poll: Slight decline for the Dutch Freedom Party after Wilders suspends his election campaign due to terrorist threat
Just two weeks before the Dutch parliamentary elections, a new poll conducted by the organizations EenVandaag and Verian showed a slight decline in support for the far-right PVV party after its leader Geert Wilders announced the suspension of his campaign following reports of a terrorist threat. In contrast, the parties GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, and JA21 made slight gains.
Despite the decline, the PVV party remains the largest in the polls, with an expected 31 seats. Over the past months, the party's support has ranged between 30 and 35 seats. In the current parliament (Tweede Kamer), the party has 37 seats.
The survey included 1,566 Dutch voters and was conducted from Friday to Monday, following reports that Geert Wilders may be on a hit list from a Belgian terrorist cell. Later, Dutch authorities announced that there was no concrete evidence of additional threats. 96% of PVV supporters reported that they understand Wilders' decision to suspend his campaign activities and his absence from two recent debates, although 60% of them believe it is important for him to participate in at least one debate before the elections.
In contrast, some voters who voted for the party in the 2023 elections were less sympathetic, with 13% of them stating that they disagreed with his absence. Voters from other parties were more critical, accusing Wilders of exploiting the situation to avoid tough questions about his political agenda.
According to the poll, the GroenLinks-PvdA coalition led by Frans Timmermans ranks second with 25 seats, an increase of two seats from the previous poll, while the CDA party led by Henry Bontebal remains stable at 23 seats. In the following ranks, the D66 party has risen by three seats to reach 14, while the VVD party remains stable at 14 seats, and the JA21 party continues its rise to reach 13 seats — a significant increase compared to just one seat in the current parliament.
However, small parties are still facing difficulties. The SP party has decreased from seven to four seats, while the FvD party has maintained five seats, and the 50Plus party — which represents the interests of the elderly — has returned to the political scene with two seats after several years of absence. Nevertheless, uncertainty still prevails, as 48% of voters have not yet decided who they will vote for or whether they will vote at all.
With 150 seats at stake in the Tweede Kamer elections scheduled for October 29, experts expect the process of forming the next government to be complex and difficult. The margin of error in the poll is two seats for the major parties and one seat for the smaller parties, meaning surprises are still possible as election day approaches.