Europe has only six weeks of jet fuel left
Europe’s jet fuel supplies could be exhausted in “perhaps six weeks”, warns فاتح بيرول, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA). As kerosene becomes scarcer and more expensive, airlines are already trimming flight plans and raising ticket prices, alarming summer travellers.
The European kerosene market is under mounting pressure. According to فاتح بيرول, current stocks may only cover a short period if deliveries remain disrupted. This creates deep uncertainty for passengers who have already booked their trips or are planning holidays in the coming months.
Airlines are starting to react. Some carriers are reducing flight schedules, merging routes and preparing internally to cut capacity. With fewer flights and strong demand, the industry expects higher prices and the risk that not all planned connections will operate as advertised.
For individual flight bookings, the agreed ticket price is usually binding once the contract is concluded. Airlines may only increase fares later if this right is clearly reserved in their General Conditions of Carriage (GCC). Courts have often rejected vague or non‑transparent price‑adjustment clauses. If there is no valid clause and the airline raises the price without consent, passengers can object in writing, withdraw from the contract, and demand a refund and compensation for additional costs.
Consumer experts advise passengers to react quickly in the event of surcharges. If the deadline passes without objection, the higher price is considered accepted. Travellers can refuse unjustified additional claims, pay only under protest if necessary, and insist on free cancellation when the legal threshold is exceeded. If underlying costs, such as kerosene, fall again, customers are entitled to a corresponding price reduction.
The kerosene shortage also increases the risk of flight cancellations and route combinations. Under EU air passenger rights, airlines must offer affected travellers alternative transport to their destination or a full refund of the ticket price. For an equivalent replacement flight, no extra fee may be charged. These rules apply even if the airline cites supply problems.
The situation is tense because a large share of Europe’s jet fuel comes via international trade routes now under strain, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s key energy corridors. If significant volumes fail to arrive, Europe will still receive fuel, but in smaller, more expensive and less reliable quantities. For holidaymakers, this means that, much like during the COVID‑19 pandemic, they once again face uncertainty over whether flights will operate as planned—this time, not due to a lack of passengers, but because of a looming fuel shortage.