Why is the number of refugees in Europe declining?
Germany has been witnessing a noticeable decline in the number of asylum seekers for some time. This is due to a combination of factors involving politics, geographical developments, and conditions in the countries of origin.
About ten years ago, Germany reinstated temporary border controls with Austria, which have been extended several times. In 2023, these controls included Germany's borders with Poland, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland, and in 2024 they extended to all other borders. German officials, such as Alexander Dobrindt, assert that these steps aim to send a "signal to the world" that immigration policy in Germany has changed. Nevertheless, there is no clear evidence of the impact of these messages outside Europe.
In the first week of implementing strict border controls, only 32 asylum seekers were returned across Germany. However, the police union confirmed that these measures cannot be maintained for a long time. Other European countries, such as France, are also implementing similar controls without tangible results according to experts.
In the first four months of 2025, Germany recorded 45,681 initial asylum applications, a decrease of 46% compared to the same period in 2024. These figures also include newborns in refugee families, but do not include Ukrainians who typically receive direct protection.
For the first time in a long time, Syria was not the primary source of asylum seekers in Germany, but Afghanistan, where 2,191 Afghans registered asylum applications in April, followed by Syria (1,615), Turkey (956), and Somalia (368).
The decline in numbers officially began in the winter of 2023/2024. Former Interior Minister Nancy Faeser linked this decline to border controls, but migration expert Frank Duville believes it is related to a general decline across the European Union, not a result of German policies. According to Eurostat data, the number of asylum seekers in the EU decreased by 13% compared to 2023.
This decline is also due to the decrease in the number of Syrian refugees in Turkey, who were under temporary protection. Between October 2024 and March 2025, the number fell from 3.1 million to less than 2.8 million. With the situation in Syria improving, it is likely that more of them will return to their country instead of risking crossing into Europe.
Another important factor is the relative stability in Libya, despite ongoing clashes between militias. Many migrants from sub-Saharan African countries now prefer to stay there rather than risk a journey to Europe. Nevertheless, the maritime route between Libya and Italy remains active, with around 19,000 people arriving in Italy from Libya since the beginning of the year until mid-May. Hundreds have also arrived via Tunisia and Algeria. The largest group of arrivals were from Bangladesh, followed by Pakistan and Egypt.
The distribution of asylum seekers across European countries varies significantly. 85% of Bangladeshi asylum seekers went to Italy, while 75% of asylum seekers from Congo went to France, and 44% of those coming from Turkey went to Germany. As for those coming from Venezuela, 94% of them went to Spain.
Despite the humanitarian disaster in Sudan, where more than 12.3 million people have fled due to war, only a few have headed to Germany. From January to April, only 245 asylum applications from Sudanese were recorded. This is due to the lack of social networks connecting them to Germany, according to expert Dufail, as the majority remain in neighboring countries like Chad and Egypt.
Escape routes to Europe are constantly changing due to the tactics of traffickers and increasing European restrictions. These measures include the use of drones in Bulgaria, pushback operations in Cyprus, and the allocation of remote ports for rescue ships in Italy. Some North African countries also detain refugees under agreements with the European Union. Algeria, for example, is deporting thousands to the borders of Niger in the heart of the desert.
In 2024, at least 3,500 people died in the Mediterranean Sea while trying to reach Europe, or were considered missing. Deaths were also recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, at the land border with Poland, in the Balkans, and even in the English Channel.
Dufil points out that the COVID-19 pandemic was a significant factor in the fluctuations of refugee numbers. The numbers sharply decreased between 2020 and 2022, then rose significantly in 2023, only to decline again later.
As for the future, it remains unclear. The wars in Sudan and Gaza may lead to new waves of displacement, if people are able to leave. The fate of Syria, however, remains uncertain and significantly affects the refugee map in Europe.