Those born after 1970 have a lower life expectancy.
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A troubling new study from the United States suggests that people born after 1970 may have a lower life expectancy than previous generations, reversing a long-standing trend in which each generation lived longer than the one before. Researchers say rising rates of heart disease, cancer, and other health risks are driving the shift.
For decades, advances in medicine, better hygiene, and improved treatments helped steadily increase life expectancy. However, that progress has slowed significantly since around 2010. A new analysis by researchers from the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) sheds light on why this change may be happening.
The researchers analyzed mortality data from 1979 to 2023, tracking entire birth generations over time rather than examining individual years. They studied deaths caused by cardiovascular disease, cancer, drug overdoses, suicide, homicide, and traffic accidents.
Their findings revealed a clear pattern: people born before the 1950s generally had better survival rates than the generations before them. However, those born in the 1950s marked a turning point, with later generations gradually showing worse mortality trends.
The most concerning results were seen among people born between 1970 and 1985. Despite not yet reaching retirement age, these individuals already show higher mortality rates than older generations did at the same age. Researchers found worse outcomes in overall mortality, heart disease, cancer—especially colorectal cancer—and deaths caused by external factors such as overdoses and accidents.
Heart disease emerged as one of the biggest reasons for the decline. While death rates from heart attacks and strokes had fallen for decades, that progress slowed sharply around 2010 and in some cases began reversing. Researchers believe rising obesity, reduced benefits from declining smoking rates, and the long-term effects of chronic heart conditions may be contributing factors.
Cancer trends also raised concern. Although many cancer death rates declined over time, colorectal cancer has become increasingly common among younger adults. Researchers believe obesity and poor dietary habits may be playing a major role in this growing risk.
In addition, deaths from drug overdoses, suicides, homicides, and traffic accidents have increased significantly in recent decades. Scientists say these trends reflect a combination of health, social, and economic pressures rather than a single cause.
Despite major advances in medical treatment, researchers warn that more people are developing chronic illnesses. According to the study’s authors, modern medicine is saving more lives than ever, but increasing rates of disease, obesity, stress, social inequality, and substance abuse are offsetting many of those gains, creating a troubling outlook for future life expectancy.