Germany faces the possibility of a gas shortage this winter: Are the reserves sufficient?
Natural gas storage facilities in Germany are filling up this year at a slower pace compared to previous years, raising concerns about energy security in winter. Currently, German gas reserves stand at 76.5% of storage capacity, which is about seven points lower than the long-term average before the war in Ukraine. Despite an increase in storage levels over the past two months, they remain below the historical average for this time of year. This shortfall is attributed to high gas consumption last winter due to unusually cold weather and increased industrial demand.
Despite the low levels, experts from the Initiative Energien Speichern (INES) say that the situation can be managed under normal winter temperatures. They expect storage to reach 81% by November 1, which remains below the long-term average but is sufficient for normal heating needs. The association confirms that serious risks only arise in the case of an extremely cold winter.
If temperatures drop significantly, gas consumption by households and businesses may increase, potentially depleting stocks by the end of January. Such a scenario has not occurred in Germany's history, even during the crisis winters of 2021/22 and 2022/23 related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, opinions differ on the likelihood of this scenario. INES describes it as a real risk that requires government action, while the Federal Network Agency remains more optimistic, pointing to new LNG terminals in the North Sea as backup supply options.
Germany now has four operational LNG terminals, which can import liquefied natural gas from abroad in emergencies. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, led by Katharina Reiche (CDU), considers these terminals to be game changers, having eased storage requirements from 90% to 80% by November 1st. Gas industry associations also confirm this optimism, pointing to international trade partnerships and existing infrastructure as safeguards against shortages.
However, there are still challenges. Gas imports from neighboring countries such as France, Belgium, and the Netherlands may not always be reliable, as these countries may also face gas shortages during the cold winter. If natural gas becomes insufficient, the German government will have to intervene, either by forcing suppliers to buy more gas or by directly filling the stocks and then distributing it later. Liquefied natural gas can also be purchased during the winter in emergencies to avoid a crisis.