Why will Geert Wilders not become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
As the general elections in the Netherlands approach next week, international attention is once again turning to Geert Wilders, the leader of the far-right Freedom Party (Partij voor de Vrijheid - PVV). Despite his strong lead in the polls, political experts assert that Wilders' chances of becoming the next Dutch Prime Minister are virtually nonexistent.
Current opinion polls indicate that the Freedom Party may obtain more than 30 seats — slightly less than its current 37 seats — but it will remain the largest party with approximately 20% of the votes. However, this percentage is still far from the majority required in the Tweede Kamer, the Dutch House of Representatives. In the proportional representation system in the Netherlands, the number of seats a party has corresponds to its share of the votes, making coalition governments inevitable. No party in recent history has been able to achieve an outright majority.
Wilders insists that if his party wins the most seats, he should automatically be appointed Prime Minister. This opinion has been supported by Joost Eerdmans from the JA21 party and former Labour MP Peter Rehwinkel, but it ignores the reality of Dutch coalition politics. Any government must have a parliamentary majority before taking office, and most major parties — such as VVD, CDA, D66, and the left-wing coalition GroenLinks-PvdA — have announced their refusal to participate in a government led by Wilders.
The last government coalition, which included the Freedom Party for the first time, collapsed after just 11 months when Wilders angrily withdrew because his partners rejected his plans to impose the strictest asylum policies in Europe. Since then, his former partners, led by the VVD party headed by Dilan Yesilgöz, have refused to cooperate with him again. Yesilgöz stated, 'Geert Wilders has proven that every vote for him is a wasted vote.' Other parties in the previous coalition, such as Nieuw Sociaal Contract and the farmers' party BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB), are expected to lose most of their seats due to the internal conflicts that tore apart the previous government.
With the scarcity of potential allies, even if Wilders allies with JA21 and several small right-wing parties, his coalition will still be more than 20 seats away from the required majority of 76 seats. He could attempt to lead a minority government that negotiates with small parties on each law individually, but that would require a change in the position of the VVD party or another large party — which is unlikely. Political analyst Bert van den Brink from Maastricht University stated that any government led by Wilders 'will almost certainly be immediately toppled in parliamentary voting.'
Some analysts suggest that Wilders should abandon his ambition for the premiership and leave the position to another figure — such as the current interim Prime Minister Dick Schoof — in a government led by the Freedom Party. However, Wilders has completely rejected this option, and there is no enthusiasm in The Hague to revisit Schoof's previous experience, which was damaged by ongoing conflicts between party leaders.
In the end, experts expect that the election results will force Dutch parties to enter into complex negotiations to form a new centrist coalition. Van den Brak said: "If parties continue to exclude each other, it will be difficult, but under pressure, things become more flexible." He added: "In the end, someone will have to concede, because calling for new elections will not solve anything."