From heatwaves to severe frost: the Netherlands must prepare for extreme weather
A new report from KNMI (the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) warns that the Netherlands must prepare for extreme and unprecedented weather phenomena, ranging from severe heatwaves to harsh frosts and violent storms.
The report focuses on the worst possible but realistic scenarios, aiming to push authorities and emergency services to think beyond past experiences. The director-general of KNMI, Martin van Alst, stated in an interview with NOS (the Dutch public broadcasting organization) that the goal is to raise awareness and enhance crisis preparedness.
The scenarios include prolonged heatwaves, weeks of extreme cold, exceptionally heavy rainfall, widespread wildfires, and a sharp drop in water levels in the Rhine River (Rijn). The report also addresses long periods of gray, windless weather, which could lead to significant disruptions in wind and solar energy production.
Other scenarios include the possibility of a tropical storm heading directly towards the Netherlands, or Bonaire, Saba, and Sint Eustatius, which are islands belonging to the Kingdom of the Netherlands in the Caribbean, being hit by a strong hurricane. Although these events are rare, they are physically possible under the current climatic conditions.
To prepare these scenarios, KNMI researchers modified recent extreme weather events by making slight changes to advanced weather models. These models were run dozens of times to produce multiple alternative outcomes, each considered equally plausible.
Among the examples is the heatwave that hit the Netherlands in July 2018, which effectively ended with the arrival of cooler air and rain. Models showed that had this cooling not reached the country, the heatwave would have lasted an additional five days. Another scenario discussed was Tropical Storm Kirk, which deviated in 2024 towards Spain and France, but could have reached the North Sea.
In this scenario, the storm could intensify over the waters and then cross the Netherlands with winds reaching speeds of 180 kilometers per hour, causing damages that could amount to 2.7 billion euros. KNMI indicated that the Dutch climate has already warmed by about one degree Celsius compared to the reference period 1991–2020.
As a result, extreme weather phenomena have become more intense than they were in the past. KNMI confirmed that conditions that were considered nearly impossible in the past, such as temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius in the Netherlands, have now become real risks that must be taken seriously and prepared for.