Support for the leaders of the VVD and GroenLinks–PvdA parties has sharply declined ahead of the elections.
As the national elections approach, trust in some key political leaders among their supporters is waning. A new poll conducted by Ipsos I&O for Nieuwsuur shows that nearly two-thirds of VVD and GroenLinks–PvdA voters do not plan to support their parties' leading candidates. Support for VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has dropped to just 36 percent, a sharp decline from 85 percent during the last elections, according to NOS. Meanwhile, PVV leader Geert Wilders announced that he will resume his election campaign after authorities recently denied claims of increasing security threats against him.
The GroenLinks–PvdA coalition is also struggling to maintain voter trust. Support for the joint list leader Frans Timmermans has dropped from 46 to 32 percent. Political analyst Arjan Noorlander explained that many voters still associate Timmermans with the controversial merger between GroenLinks and PvdA, and they are ready for new leadership.
While both Syilgoz and Timmermans are facing a decline in enthusiasm, other leaders still enjoy strong confidence. About 86 percent of PVV voters say they would vote for Wilders, while 79 percent of CDA supporters stand behind Henri Bontemal, figures that have hardly changed since the last election. Bontemal's stable popularity could enhance his party's chances of forming a coalition. He noted that his party shares common points with VVD on immigration and defense, describing VVD members as "reliable partners in the coalition."
Within VVD, frustrations towards Yesilgöz are increasing. Some members criticize her populist style and believe she has lost touch with the party's traditional base. According to Norlander, several figures from VVD have begun to emerge on the scene to restore balance to Yesilgöz's weak image. However, he doubts that anyone else will surpass her as party leader before the elections.
The timing of the poll comes at a sensitive moment, after another poll showed a slight decline in general support for the PVV. However, Wilders' decision to resume his campaign has energized his supporters. He wrote on social media: "Elections are coming, and I feel a great responsibility towards the Netherlands and all PVV voters."
Wilders had temporarily suspended his campaign after a false report claimed he was targeted by a terrorist group in Belgium. After years of living under tight protection, he wrote: "After all these years, I no longer know the feeling of personal freedom." Many competing politicians expressed their sympathy, emphasizing that public debates must continue safely.
The Dutch political history shows the dangers of weak leadership during elections. In the 2006 elections, VVD candidate Rita Verdonk outperformed party leader Mark Rutte, leading to internal turmoil and her eventual departure from the party. Norlander believes that a repeat of this scenario with Jesselhuys is unlikely, but he warns that her position may weaken if VVD loses a significant number of seats.
Polls also revealed that some voters choose lower-ranked candidates to support specific issues, such as gender equality, rather than loyalty to the top candidate. However, Norlander emphasized that the main reason for the decline in support is the simplicity of the reality: "People turn to other candidates only when they are not excited about the top leader."
The Tweede Kamer elections for the Dutch House of Representatives are scheduled to take place on October 29.