Dutch authorities warn: The release of jihadists may pose a new terrorist threat
The release of jihadists may increase the terrorist threat, according to NCTV. The threat of terrorism and violence in the Netherlands remains high, according to the National Coordinator for Security and Counterterrorism (NCTV). The threat level remains at 4, indicating a significant risk.
Authorities are concerned about a number of convicted jihadists who have been released this year or who will be released in the coming years. Although they should be deported, this often does not happen. If they return to contact with jihadist networks, they may pose an increasing threat.
These jihadists committed acts of violence in Syria. It is unclear whether they have distanced themselves from extremist or terrorist ideologies during their time in prison. The acting head of NCTV, Wieke Vink, said: "That remains in their minds. We assume they still pose a threat or carry a potential threat."
Some of the convicted individuals who have been released, including those who will be released from prison starting in 2027, have a higher threat profile than other former jihadists. So far, there are no signs that they are planning attacks, but NCTV does not rule out this possibility.
Dual nationals can lose their Dutch nationality after being convicted of terrorism, theoretically to reduce the threat if they leave the country. However, most released terrorists who are no longer Dutch still remain in the Netherlands. They often lack stable housing, making it difficult to monitor them. This absence from sight may increase frustration and reliance on others, potentially driving them back to jihadist or criminal networks.
Terrorist threats have become more difficult to predict, as extremism often occurs at the individual level. NCTV stated: "It has become increasingly difficult to predict who will commit violent acts, when, and why." Most European attacks since 2020 have been carried out by individuals acting alone, influenced by a mix of personal, political, and ideological factors, often fueled by online extremism.
The jihadist movement in the Netherlands is finding a new generation online. NCTV warns that these recruits could form new jihadist networks in the future, posing a potential terrorist threat.
Alongside jihadism, other forms of extremism continue. A small group of anti-establishment extremists remains willing to use violence. Right-wing extremism continues to normalize, spreading fear, hatred, and racism, while left-wing extremism is smaller and less violent but has seen some attacks linked to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including vandalism, intimidation, and doxing.