Opinion polls before the elections in Rheinland-Pfalz: The Alternative for Germany party is gaining ground - initial forecasts
The Rheinland-Pfalz elections will be held on March 22, 2026, and early opinion polls indicate a significant shift in voter preferences, with the AfD making clear gains while traditional political structures are declining.
Unlike Baden-Württemberg, where voting is allowed for those aged 16, Rhineland-Palatinate still requires voters to be 18 years old. An attempt to lower the voting age was thwarted due to opposition from other parties, and the electoral rules remain unchanged. It is unknown whether younger voters would have an impact on the outcome if they were allowed to participate.
Polls reveal a significant shift compared to the 2021 elections. The SPD party, which has ruled the state for 34 years and currently leads a coalition government with the Greens and FDP, is losing its traditional position. Although Prime Minister Alexander Schweitzer—who took office after Malu Dreyer's resignation in 2024—enjoys good personal popularity, this has not lifted the party above the CDU in the polls.
The most notable development is the rise of the AfD led by Jan Bollinger. In 2021, the party received only 8.3%, but it is now on track to double its results and possibly surpass the SPD. Meanwhile, the Greens are struggling to reach a double-digit percentage, while the Left Party (Die Linke) may enter the regional parliament for the first time.
Recent polls confirm this shift. Infratest dimap gave the CDU 29%, the SPD 23%, and the AfD 19%. Meanwhile, Insa placed the CDU at 27%, the AfD at 23%, and the SPD at 22%. Smaller parties like the Free Voters (Freie Wähler), FDP, and BSW face the risk of not exceeding 5%.
Although the accuracy of polls is affected by changes in voter loyalty and last-minute decision-making, and the margin of error can reach three percentage points, recent German experiences have shown high accuracy. In the 2021 elections, the average deviation was only 1.63 points. Therefore, analysts expect that today's polls will largely reflect the actual result in March.