The Netherlands is witnessing for the first time a number of elderly people exceeding the number of young people.
The Netherlands has reached a historic demographic milestone, as the number of elderly people has surpassed the number of youth for the first time. New data from the Dutch Statistics Office (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek - CBS) shows a clear shift in the population structure at the beginning of this year.
According to the Dutch Statistics Office, the number of people aged 65 and older is about 3.76 million, compared to around 3.72 million people under the age of 20. This figure represents a symbolic turning point, as young age groups no longer constitute the largest portion of the population. Authorities expect this gap to widen further in the coming decades.
Long-term forecasts indicate that by 2070, the number of elderly people will reach about 5.4 million, while the number of youth is expected to be around 4.1 million only. This trend is particularly pronounced among older age groups, as the number of people aged 80 and over is expected to rise from more than 900,000 currently to about 2.1 million by 2070.
The most significant increase is recorded among the very elderly. The Dutch Statistics Agency estimates that the number of people aged 99 and older will rise from about 4,400 currently to more than 38,000 by 2070. This rapid growth reflects an increase in life expectancy alongside a continued decline in birth rates.
The Dutch statistics office attributes this demographic shift mainly to increased longevity and declining birth rates. The Netherlands last recorded more than 200,000 births in 2002, while only about 166,000 children were born last year. Experts warn that this trend could have significant economic and social consequences, most notably a labor shortage and increasing pressure on the healthcare sector.
As the number of retirees grows at a faster pace than the working-age population, it is expected that issues related to workforce shortages will worsen, especially in the healthcare sector, at a time when the demand for medical services is rising. The Dutch Statistics Office estimates that the total population of the Netherlands could reach 20.6 million by 2070, emphasizing that these projections remain uncertain and depend on factors such as immigration, life expectancy, and fertility rates.