Fact check: Do migrants really consume the Netherlands' budget? Experts disagree
As the Netherlands prepares for early general elections on October 29, immigration has become one of the hottest issues in political debate. Some commentators and far-right politicians have made provocative claims about the financial burden of immigrants, but experts assert that most of these figures are misleading or exaggerated.
One of the most prominent claims was made by Eva Vlaardingenbroek on platform X, where she alleged that every non-Western migrant costs the Dutch treasury an average of 600,000 euros. However, this claim distorts the results of a study conducted by researcher Jan van de Beek, which examined the long-term financial impact of immigration. The study found that migrants coming to the Netherlands for work contribute positively over 100,000 euros per individual, while the financial impact of refugees and family migrants is initially negative. Nevertheless, the figures used by Vlaardingenbroek far exceed those mentioned in the study.
The broader study conducted by Van de Beek, detailed in his 2024 book titled Migratiemagneet Nederland (Migration Magnet: Netherlands), estimated that the cost of immigration to the Dutch treasury between 1995 and 2019 was around 400 billion euros. These results sparked widespread debate, especially as economists questioned the assumptions on which the study was based. They argue that Van de Beek misinterpreted how public services work, treating all government spending as if it automatically increases with population growth.
Economists Jan Willem Gunning from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Casper de Vries from Erasmus University Rotterdam point out that many public services such as defense and flood protection are non-competitive, meaning their cost does not increase with the number of users. When these services are excluded from the calculations, the estimated annual loss from immigration drops from 17.3 billion euros to about 8.4 billion euros, which is less than 1% of GDP. Experts also noted that immigration has balancing economic benefits, such as filling labor shortages and supporting vital sectors in the Dutch economy.
Experts also confirm that the contribution of migrants changes over time. According to De Vries, Van de Beek's study incorrectly assumes that a young migrant will maintain the same economic behavior for decades. In reality, migrants acquire better skills and education over time, which increases their productivity. De Vries said, "They may start as a burden, but eventually they become a source of benefit to the economy."
Sociologist Leo Lucassen from Leiden University warned that such studies and statements contribute to the stigmatization of migrants coming from certain areas like Africa and the Middle East. He explained that refugees, despite their high initial costs due to being barred from working, integrate into society as soon as they obtain work rights. He said, "In the long term, they become part of Dutch society and contribute to its economy."
The Dutch Ministry of Asylum and Migration confirmed that the daily cost of accommodating an asylum seeker averages 71 euros, and the total budget allocated for receiving foreigners, including asylum seekers, amounts to 9.48 billion euros for 2025, which is less than 1% of the GDP. These figures indicate that migration, despite its costs, does not threaten the stability of the Dutch welfare state. As Lucassen said: "The numbers may be partially correct, but the conclusion that the welfare state cannot accommodate migrants is ridiculous. The Netherlands has endured for decades and will continue to do so."