Germany complains about the crisis but still profits from it.
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Germany keeps talking about crisis. But behind the headlines of stagnation and fear, some parts of the economy are still making money — and even benefiting from the chaos.
Since 2020, Germany has lost an estimated 940 billion euros in economic output due to the pandemic, the energy shock, the war in Ukraine, and trade conflicts. That’s almost a trillion euros gone, more than double the damage of the 2008 financial crisis. The Institute of the German Economy (IW) calculates that every worker has effectively lost over 20,000 euros.
The numbers look grim. GDP only grew 0.2% in 2025, leaving Germany lagging behind the US and China. Exports are weak, especially in cars and machinery — the very sectors that made Germany an export champion. Company insolvencies have risen above 2009 levels, and investment is still below pre-crisis levels. Economists warn of a "slow erosion" rather than a sudden crash, driven by demographics, bureaucracy, and dependence on energy imports.
Yet at the same time, some businesses are thriving. Defense, energy, digital infrastructure, and consulting firms tied to government spending have seen record orders. The state is pumping billions into infrastructure and subsidies, creating winners in construction and green tech. Exporters with niche products still find buyers abroad. And because interest rates rose, banks and savers are finally earning returns again after years of near-zero rates.
This contradiction fuels public frustration. A survey for 2025 found inflation remains Germans’ top fear, with 52% worried about rising living costs. At the same time, the mood is described as "krisenmüde" — crisis-tired. Politicians promise a "Herbst der Reformen" and special funds, but growth barely moved.
Experts are split. Some, like Ifo boss Clemens Fuest, warn Germany risks "Italian conditions" — 25 years of decline — unless bureaucracy is cut and social spending reformed. Others, like economist Erik Fossing Nielsen, say the pessimism is overblown. He argues the big shocks have faded and sees 1.5% growth possible for 2026, better than the OECD’s 1% forecast.
The reality is mixed. Germany remains wealthy compared to other G7 countries. Research spending is high at 3.1% of GDP, domestic competition is stable, and unemployment is still relatively low. But digitalization lags, social mobility is falling, and debt is rising.
So yes, Germany is "jammert" — complaining. But in a crisis, some always profit. The challenge now is whether reforms can turn those pockets of gain into broad growth, before the slow erosion becomes permanent.