AfD only 3 points ahead of SPD: Poll on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election
Nine days before the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD's lead is shrinking. In a new INSA poll for the Nordkurier, the AfD is at 36 percent, while the SPD of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig is at 33 percent. At the beginning of August, the SPD was at 29 percent, while the AfD remained unchanged at 36. The gap between the two parties is now only 3 points, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.
The CDU has plummeted to 7 percent, the lowest figure in its history in the northeast and 3 points lower than a month ago. The Left Party (Die Linke) is stable at 11 percent, and the Greens are at 5 percent, which would just barely get them into the state parliament. The BSW remains below the five-percent hurdle at 4 percent, and the FDP is now only listed under "others." 1,000 eligible voters aged 16 and over were surveyed between September 1 and September 8. A parallel poll for the NDR puts the AfD at 38 percent and the Left Party at 9 percent.
For the formation of a government after September 20, these figures mean that a red-red-green coalition would have a majority in the new state parliament, while other alliances excluding the AfD currently do not. The other parties have ruled out working with the AfD. Political scientist Jochen Müller from the University of Greifswald sees the SPD campaign having an effect: "It could still be very close." Another 18 percent of respondents can imagine voting for the SPD, while for the AfD, that figure is only 4 percent.
What this means for you: The election will take place on Sunday, September 20, 2026, and for the first time, 16-year-olds are also allowed to vote. Even if you are not eligible to vote yourself, you are still affected by the result: The new state parliament decides which parties are represented in Schwerin and which coalitions remain possible at all, and thus also decides on state programs for integration, language courses, and housing. If you are eligible to vote and are unable to do so on election day, you should take care of your postal vote now before the deadlines expire.