Germany Sees Decline in Migration as Balkan Workers Begin Returning Home
Germany is seeing a drop in arrivals as workers from the Western Balkans start heading home, according to new analysis.
For years Germany was the main destination for people leaving the Western Balkans. A 2015 Western Balkan Regulation made it easier to get work visas, and it brought a surge of workers into healthcare, construction and manufacturing. The pull was higher wages, stronger welfare and better career prospects.
That flow is now reversing. Researchers note that improving economic prospects in the region, combined with stricter migration rules in Germany, are encouraging return migration. Remittances, trade and foreign direct investment built up over the last decade are helping origin countries create more jobs at home.
The shift is already visible in visa data. In Q1 2026, Kosovo was among the top countries for family-reunion visas, but scholars link this to a broader trend of people reassessing life in Germany. Kosovo, Albania and other Balkan states had long been major sources of workers after the regulation opened the German labour market.
For Germany, the decline raises new questions. The country still faces labour shortages in key sectors and is actively recruiting nurses from India and other partners. For the Western Balkans, return migration could bring skills and capital back, but also pressure on local job markets if not managed well.