Germany could miss climate goal in 2026 for the first time: Think tank
Germany is at risk of missing its annual climate target for the first time in 2026, with emissions falling too slowly. The warning from Agora Energiewende has renewed concerns over the country’s climate strategy under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Germany could miss its annual climate target in 2026 for the first time unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced much faster, according to climate think tank Agora Energiewende. The warning is likely to intensify criticism of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government over its climate policies.
Carbon dioxide emissions fell by around 2% during the first half of 2026, largely because oil demand weakened amid the energy shock linked to the war in the Middle East. However, Agora estimates that if emissions continue declining at the same rate, Germany will produce around 635 million tonnes of CO₂ this year.
That would be about 13 million tonnes less than in 2025, but still roughly 10 million tonnes above the limit established under Germany’s climate protection law. Although missing the annual target may not trigger immediate consequences, Agora warned that it could signal a much larger problem for Germany’s long-term climate commitments.
Germany is legally committed to cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 65% from 1990 levels by 2030. To stay on track, Agora estimates that the country needs to reduce emissions by around 40 million tonnes of CO₂ every year. Germany also has a legally binding goal of achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045.
The slowing pace of emissions reductions has raised concerns that the Merz government is placing greater emphasis on supporting businesses and reviving Germany’s stagnant economy than on tackling climate change. Those concerns have become particularly strong after a summer marked by severe droughts and heat waves across Germany and other parts of Europe.
Merz has attempted to reassure critics, saying that Germany would draw long-term lessons from the difficult summer. However, the government-appointed Council of Experts on Climate Change also warned in May that Germany was not on track to meet its 2030 climate target, adding further pressure on Berlin to accelerate emissions cuts.