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The world’s most important relationship is breaking down, and experts warn it could end in confrontation if Washington and Beijing fail to find a way to coexist.
The Biden administration believes China’s rise threatens US dominance and has launched what amounts to a containment strategy. Beijing sees it the same way and has responded with growing assertiveness. The flashpoint now is technology.
Washington is fighting to keep its lead in semiconductors through an intense “chip war.” It has imposed sweeping bans on American companies and allied countries exporting advanced chips and chip-making equipment to China. The goal is to cripple an industry that powers everything from supercomputers and smartphones to cars. China views the restrictions as economic warfare, and relations have deteriorated further as a result.
The question now is where this leaves the US-China relationship. Opinions are split. Some analysts say intense competition and mistrust are unavoidable. Others warn that unmanaged rivalry could put the two powers on a collision course with unpredictable consequences. A third group fears an accidental slide into war through miscalculation.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger put it bluntly in a recent interview with _The Economist_. “Both sides have convinced themselves that the other represents a strategic danger,” he said. According to Kissinger, the fate of the world depends on whether Washington and Beijing can learn to live with each other. That would require the US to become less insecure about China’s rise, and China to be more responsive to core US concerns.
The writer, a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN, argues the stakes could not be higher. With trade, technology, and geopolitics all tangled together, the choice between confrontation and coexistence will define global stability for the next decade.