AfD tops Mecklenburg-Vorpommern projection on 37 percent, CDU at 5
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elected a new Landtag on Sunday 20 September, and the first projection published when polling stations closed at 18:00 puts the AfD in first place on 37 percent. The SPD of Minister President Manuela Schwesig is close behind on 35.5 percent. Die Linke follows on 7.5 percent, the Greens on 5.5 percent, and both the BSW and the CDU sit on 5 percent, exactly at the threshold a party must clear to enter the parliament. These figures come from interviews with voters as they left polling stations. They are not counted ballots.
Two things in that list have never happened here before. The AfD has never finished first in the state, and it has more than doubled the 16.7 percent it took in 2021. The CDU, which won 13.3 percent five years ago, is now fighting for its survival in the chamber. If it ends below 5 percent it would be the first time since 1990 that the CDU is absent from a German state parliament altogether. The SPD has slipped from 39.6 percent to 35.5 percent but has held on to almost all of its ground.
For the roughly 1.3 million people entitled to vote, including 16 and 17 year olds for the first time, the immediate question is who can actually govern. Finishing first does not put the AfD in power: the SPD, the CDU, Die Linke and the Greens have all ruled out a coalition with it, so its lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm has no realistic route to the Minister President's office. Schwesig's existing coalition with Die Linke is short of a majority on about 48 percent of the seats, which means she needs a third partner, and which parties clear the threshold decides what is available to her.
The Landtag has at least 71 seats and 19 parties stood. The state returning officer publishes officially counted interim results from about 19:00, updated every 15 minutes as districts report. Chancellor Friedrich Merz described the outcome in both states as a disaster for his party. Treat the 18:00 percentages as an estimate until the count catches up.