Germany's far-right AfD aims for breakthrough in state election
Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls on Sunday in an election that could deliver the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) its first state government.
State Premier Sven Schulze of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) called the vote "a decision that will set the course for Germany". Polls currently put the AfD at more than 40% support, 15 to 20 points ahead of the CDU. A recent Infratest dimap survey had the AfD at 41% versus 24% for the CDU.
The AfD is campaigning on restricting immigration, restoring ties with Russia, and quitting the euro. Its lead candidate, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, has told rallies "I want my beautiful, old, safe Germany back". Co-leader Alice Weidel has said "We will form the government in Saxony-Anhalt" and even aims for an outright majority to govern alone.
Despite the polling lead, taking power will be difficult. The AfD has been designated extremist right-wing by the local office of Germany's domestic intelligence service. All other major parties have ruled out cooperation with it in what is known as the "firewall" policy. That means a CDU-led coalition could still block the AfD from government.
The CDU currently governs Saxony-Anhalt in a coalition with the centre-left SPD and pro-free-market FDP. But coalition math is tight. Surveys suggest the FDP may miss the 5% threshold, and even a CDU + SPD + Greens bloc might not be enough. One option floated is a CDU minority government tolerated by Die Linke (The Left Party), similar to models in Thuringia.
The AfD's surge reflects broader disillusion with Merz's unpopular federal government in Berlin. Nationally the party is polling at 27%, roughly level with the CDU/CSU at 22%. Founded in 2013 during the euro crisis, the AfD now draws much of its strength from former communist eastern states where frustration with reunification lingers.
Saxony-Anhalt is the first of three state elections in September. Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote on September 20. For Merz, a breakthrough AfD win would mark a historic shift and pile pressure on his government just one year into office.