The Netherlands faces a second wave of aging with declining birth rates; the population may drop to below 10 million.
The Netherlands is facing a potential second wave of aging, and experts warn that the population could drop to below 10 million by the end of the century if birth rates continue to decline. Predictions published by De Telegraaf show serious long-term risks for the country.
Economists and demographers fear that declining fertility and an increasing proportion of elderly people will put significant pressure on pensions, healthcare, and social services. Economic expert Casper van Ewijk from the Netspar center stated that the decline in births and the increasing burden of aging pose huge challenges for the AOW system (Dutch state pension), especially in elderly care.
The Centraal Planbureau (CPB) expects that national debt will exceed 100% of GDP in the long term, without accounting for potential additional costs due to population decline. Studies by Nidi and Netspar indicate that these aging trends will create significant financial pressure on the state.
The population of the Netherlands currently stands at 18.1 million, with most of the growth attributed to immigration according to CBS statistics. The fertility rate has continuously declined over the past fifteen years, with an average of only 1.4 children per woman in 2024, while one in five women is now childless. Van Ewijk warned that the ratio of workers to retirees could drop from three for every elderly person to about 2.5.
Experts warn that the shrinking population will affect schools, the flow of the workforce, sports clubs, and even military recruitment. Plans to expand the Dutch armed forces to 100,000 soldiers — then to 122,000 under the D66–CDA coalition agreement — may become unrealistic. Social security professor Daniel van Vooren from SEO Economic Research pointed out that even the emergency target of 200,000 personnel raises a critical question: "Where will we get these people from?".
Experts are urging decision-makers to prepare for a future with fewer children and more elderly people. Van Vorn suggested designing buildings flexibly, such as constructing schools in a way that allows them to be converted later into residential apartments for those over seventy.