Power shift in Iran: The Revolutionary Guard takes full control after Khamenei's death
After the assassination of Ali Khamenei, real power in Iran has decisively shifted to the Revolutionary Guard, according to political analyst Ralph Ghadban. He says that the group now controls the state, society, and the economy.
The Revolutionary Guard was established after the Islamic Revolution in 1979 to protect the new regime. Over time, it expanded its influence through war, security operations, and political control. During the Iran-Iraq War, it created its own weapons industry and gradually pushed the regular army aside, strengthening its independent power base.
Socially, the Guard is deeply rooted through its civilian wing, the Basij militia. It is estimated that 12 million Iranians belong to this network, allowing the Guard to penetrate daily life and monitor society. This structure has helped secure the authority of the religious leadership for decades.
Economically, the Revolutionary Guard has become a dominant force. It controls key industries, including large parts of the oil sector, and manages institutions and companies across the country. Analysts estimate that it now controls about 40 percent of Iran's economy, giving it political and financial influence.
Under Ali Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guard has become the cornerstone of power, relying on it to suppress opponents and maintain control. According to Ghadban, the Revolutionary Guard now rules Iran, sets policies, and determines the direction of the country, while internal conflicts between hardliners and reformists continue amid tensions with the United States and Israel.