Oil Prices Could Drop: Iran Returns to the Market & More
The US has paved the way for Iranian oil, which could lead to a decrease in global prices and Russian budget revenues. Simultaneously, Iran and the US have agreed to end their military confrontation, while in neighboring Lithuania, the entire government has resigned.
Russian budget revenues and the ruble's exchange rate may come under pressure due to a potential drop in oil prices. The US has officially authorized oil exports from Iran, which will increase the supply of raw materials on the global market. This was facilitated by a de-escalation in relations: the countries signed a memorandum to end the military conflict that had lasted since late February. President Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz—the most important sea route for tankers between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman—is now fully open to vessels. At the same time, the situation remains ambiguous: Washington claims that IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors are returning to Iranian facilities, but Tehran has not yet confirmed this information.
The political situation near Russia's borders may change due to the resignation of the Lithuanian government. The Cabinet of Ministers, led by Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, has officially stepped down. The change of power in the neighboring state could affect bilateral relations and the situation at the borders; however, the composition of the new government has not yet been determined.
The risk of new large-scale wars starting has decreased following a vote in the US Senate. Lawmakers passed a resolution that limits President Donald Trump's authority to initiate military action without direct approval from Congress. The initiative was supported by 50 senators, including four representatives of the president's Republican Party, which will create additional legal barriers to the use of military force abroad.
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