SD declines for the first time: opposition leads with 176 seats
The opposition leads with 176 seats against the Tidö parties' 173 with 94 percent of the votes counted, according to the Swedish Election Authority's preliminary results. The difference between the blocs is small, around 30,000 votes as of Monday morning, and the figure fluctuated throughout the day. The result is therefore not yet final.
The Social Democrats remain the largest party with 28.1 percent but fall by 2.3 percentage points, which is a historic loss for the party. The Centre Party receives 7.1 percent, the Left Party 8.2, and the Green Party 6.1, with all three showing gains. On the Tidö side, the Moderate Party advances to 19.9 percent, the Christian Democrats to 6.2, and the Liberals to 5.4. The Sweden Democrats land at 17.6 percent, declining by three percentage points. It is the first time ever that the party has seen a decline in a parliamentary election.
The fact that the Liberals cleared the threshold by a clear margin was the surprise of the election. The party was polling as low as 1.8 percent in a survey in February.
The vote count is not finished. On Wednesday, overseas votes and late-arriving advance votes will be counted, a process that may extend into Thursday. In the 2022 election, there were approximately 224,000 such votes, and this year there may be more as a record number, over 3.6 million, cast their votes in advance. In parallel, the county administrative boards are conducting the final count, which is estimated to take about a week. Only then will the result be confirmed.
Following that, the new parliament will convene on September 28 to elect a Speaker. At the earliest on September 29, the Speaker can propose a Prime Minister, and the parliament will vote on the proposal. If more than half of the members vote no, the process begins again.
For those following the government question, it is worth noting that the negotiations may be protracted. The Social Democrats need support from both the Centre Party and the Left Party, two parties that are far apart. The Centre Party has stated it is ready to negotiate but rejects what it calls fringe politics. Ulf Kristersson has said that he is contacting other party leaders to explore whether a functional government constellation can be found.