A billion-dollar market allows users to bet on German politics in defiance of the law
Online betting on political events is officially illegal in Germany, yet prediction markets are still offering action on upcoming German elections. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi operate in a legal gray area that regulators find extremely hard to control.
Prediction markets allow users to anonymously bet on almost any future event, from wars and natural disasters to election results. Polymarket, a multi‑billion‑dollar platform, currently lists markets on three German state elections in Saxony‑Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, as well as on whether فريدريش ميرتس will leave office as chancellor before 2027. The Berlin vote is already attracting particular interest, with around $3 million (€2.6 million) reportedly wagered months before election day.
Germany’s gambling authority, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL – Joint Gambling Authority of the German States), has warned that this “social betting” on elections, court rulings or natural disasters is illegal and easy to manipulate. The GGL says payments from German IP addresses are blocked and any signs of illegal betting are forwarded to law enforcement.
Experts see serious risks for democracy. بوركهارت شتيلر, a computer science professor and fintech specialist at the University of Zurich, argues that turning political decisions into game‑theory bets can “manipulate narratives” and distract from real policy debates.
Recent cases have raised suspicions of insider trading. Large, well‑timed bets on the fall of Venezuelan President نيكولاس مادورو, US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, and a US‑Iran ceasefire have suggested that some bettors may have used secret information. Because these platforms use cryptocurrencies and allow anonymity, it is extremely hard to trace who profits.
At the same time, prediction markets are gaining prestige. In 2024, they appeared to forecast دونالد ترامب’s victory over كمالا هاريس more accurately than many opinion polls, and US broadcaster CNN has partnered with Kalshi as an extra election data source.
اقتصاد رقمي lecturer ألكسندر بيتشل notes that some researchers now trust these markets more than polls, arguing people are more honest when they “put their money where their mouth is.” But he and others warn that big players can distort prices, niche questions can invite manipulation, and strict regulation is needed. Suggested measures include mandatory identity checks and bans on highly specific political bets, to reduce dangers without banning prediction markets entirely.