An increase of 600 million euros for heating: What will change for tenants and owners starting in 2026?
Heating with gas and oil is expected to become significantly more expensive starting in 2026, which will create new financial pressure on millions of households. Recent calculations indicate that the increase in the national price of carbon dioxide will lead to higher heating costs across Germany, affecting tenants and homeowners who rely on fossil fuel systems.
Starting from January 1, 2026, the national price of carbon dioxide will rise from 55 euros to up to 65 euros per ton. According to an analysis provided by the energy service provider '1KOMMA5°', households that use gas heating alone may pay up to 600 million euros more in CO₂ costs compared to previous years. Despite differing opinions among experts, there is a broad consensus that heating costs will continue to rise.
So far, the price of CO₂ has been politically determined. Starting in 2026, it will be set through an auction system within a defined range, meaning that prices are unlikely to decrease. According to Janik Schaal, co-founder and head of products at '1KOMMA5°', the price of CO₂ cannot be lower than the current level, ensuring a continuous increase in additional costs for households that continue to use gas or oil for heating.
In reality, a family living in a detached house with gas heating may pay up to 48 euros extra annually, depending on consumption. For oil heating systems, the increase may reach 63 euros per year. In small apartments, annual CO₂ costs for gas are expected to rise from about 66 to 78 euros, while heating costs for oil may increase from around 87 to 103 euros.
In larger homes with high energy consumption, the impact will be much greater. Annual CO₂ costs can reach around €311 for gas heating and about €412 for oil heating. These figures only represent the beginning of the upward trend, as the national price of carbon dioxide is seen as a temporary solution before transitioning to a broader European system.
At the European level, the price of carbon dioxide in the current emissions trading system is around 82 euros per ton. If this price were applied to heating, it could add about 130 euros annually to the heating cost for a family relying on gas, with much larger increases for oil users. In the long term, the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne expects the average CO₂ price to reach 160 euros per ton by 2035, which could mean additional costs exceeding 500 euros annually for households using fossil fuel heating.
At the same time, the federal government is still discussing the future of the Building Energy Act, known as the Heating Act. While political uncertainty continues, market data shows a clear trend, with sales of gas and oil heating systems sharply declining, while heat pumps have become the most widespread option. Germany's goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2045 makes rising costs of fossil heating systems inevitable, regardless of the details of the laws.
Experts confirm that the question facing families is no longer whether to change the heating system, but when to do so. Delaying increases the risks of exposure to rising CO₂ costs and uncertainty about future investments. Modern heat pumps, especially when combined with a dynamic electricity tariff, provide a long-term solution for reducing emissions and costs. According to Janik Schaal, smart heat pumps can draw electricity at the least expensive and cleanest times, significantly avoiding CO₂ heating costs in the long run.