Tough race in the Netherlands: Wilders' anti-Islam party loses momentum ahead of the vote
The Dutch elections have turned into a fierce battle, as far-right leader Geert Wilders faces a clear decline in support and diminishing chances of forming a new government. His anti-Islam party, Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV), which won the elections in November 2023, now finds itself in strong competition with Frans Timmermans, leader of the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance (Greens–Labour), and Rob Jetten from the liberal D66 party.
As the Dutch head to the polls, their concerns are increasingly focused on living issues rather than immigration. The chronic shortage of housing, overcrowding in asylum centers, and rising living costs – especially rents and healthcare – are the issues dominating the election campaign. About half of voters consider the housing crisis a top priority, with the country lacking around 400,000 homes in a nation of 18 million people. While Wilders continues to blame immigration, his opponents point out that planning obstacles and the increase in single-person households are the main reasons for the crisis.
The previous coalition of Wilders collapsed last June due to disagreements over immigration policy, and his former partners announced that they would not work with him again. This situation makes it nearly impossible for Wilders to form a new government even if he wins the most votes. Analysts say that attention is now turning to who will come in second, as this may determine the party that will lead the next coalition. Many expect that the upcoming government will be from the center-left or center-right, not from the far right.
In the last weeks of the campaign, Wilders' progress in the polls declined. He faced sharp criticism from his opponents, with Dilan Yesilgöz, the leader of the liberal-conservative VVD party, describing Wilders' party as 'a one-man show and a Twitter account at most.' Wilders was also forced to apologize after two members of his party posted fake AI-generated images showing Frans Timmermans in handcuffs.
Despite his attempts to present himself as more moderate – earning him the title of 'the moderate Wilders' – he still describes Islam as 'the greatest existential threat to our freedom.' His statements have sparked widespread controversy, with Timmermans accusing him of 'blaming Islam for everything.' Analysts believe that Wilders risks losing hardline voters if they abstain from voting, as well as moderates who may turn to other parties like the anti-immigration Ja21.
Fifteen parties are expected to win seats in parliament, which could extend government formation negotiations for weeks. With the surprising return of Henry Bontempaal and his CDA party to the forefront, some observers believe that Dutch politics is heading towards stability again. Bontempaal stated, 'The Netherlands has finished with populism,' although his campaign faced criticism after his remarks about religious schools.
The outcome of the Dutch elections remains open to all possibilities, and with more than a third of voters still undecided, the results of the vote could determine the political future of the Netherlands – and whether populism is on its way to decline or reformation.